As we review the events and dynamics that shaped 2025, one theme that stands out across all major economic analyses is that the world economy has once again demonstrated an extraordinary degree of resilience. Despite tariff shocks, policy shifts, and an uneven geopolitical landscape, global growth held firmer than expected, with the IMF projecting an expansion of about 3.2% in 2025 and a slight moderation to 3.1% in 2026. Households and firms adapted quickly, supply chains reorganized, and financial conditions remained supportive enough to keep the global cycle moving at a stable and sustained pace.
This resilience was especially visible in the way economies absorbed the wave of new tariffs. What many feared would trigger a deep disruption, instead resulted in a more moderate slowdown, as companies diversified suppliers and adjusted pricing gradually. While the global order continues to fragment, the worst-case scenarios associated with trade wars have been avoided so far.
Monetary policy entered a new phase in 2025, but remains uneven across regions. After two years of aggressive tightening, major central banks have begun cautiously easing, though approaches differ. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to proceed cautiously amid inflation uncertainty. The European Central Bank, facing a different constellation of risks, is expected to maintain a broadly stable stance. Bank of Japan’s movements are towards policy normalization, ending decades of ultra-loosing conditions as inflation remains above the target. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank cut rates to 0%, remaining flexible in the face of low inflation and the strength of the Swiss franc. Across EMs, some central banks are trimming rates while others remain defensive to contain inflation volatility and currency pressures. Yet, terminal interest rates are well above the levels of the previous decade, and markets are adjusting to a higher equilibrium baseline. Meanwhile, fiscal space remains constrained in many advanced economies, where governments must balance investment needs, demographic pressures, and elevated debt levels.
Spain, engine of growth
Amid these global trends, Spain stands out as a clear bright spot. In 2025, the economy has delivered exceptional results, outperforming not only its European peers but most advanced economies. GDP is on track to grow by about 2.9%, well above the euro area’s 1.2% and the 1.6% expected for other developed markets, driven by robust domestic demand, with resilient household consumption, strong investment particularly in intangibles and technology, and an exceptionally dynamic labor market. Despite global trade tensions, Spain has maintained strong economic momentum throughout 2025, evidencing that the tariff environment did not materially hinder its growth trajectory, mainly because the country’s export structure is less concentrated in the sectors most exposed to higher U.S. tariffs and due to existing trade agreements that mitigate the effective tariff burden on Spanish goods. Since 2019, Spain has accumulated nearly 10% economic growth, compared with 6.4% in the euro area.
This strong performance has been recognized with all major rating agencies upgrading Spain’s sovereign rating, while the risk premium fell to around 47 basis points at the end of November, its lowest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, reinforcing the perception of a more resilient, more credible, and more stable economy. For 2026, growth is projected at 2.1%, supported by accelerating Next Generation investment, continued population gains, accommodative financial conditions, easing energy costs, and a substantial household savings buffer that will sustain consumption.
Global stock markets posted strong gains in 2025, and within this context, Spain stood out as one of the best performers worldwide. The IBEX 35® has appreciated by 48% this year with just two and a half sessions left to close the year, surpassing its previous historical peak from 2007 and marking its sharpest annual rise so far this century. Notably, this rally unfolded in a context of moderate market stress, highlighting healthy corporate fundamentals and solid investor appetite. Over the last three years, the IBEX 35® has practically doubled in value, reinforcing Spain’s favorable economic narrative and the resilience that continues to characterize its listed companies.
Outlook for 2026
Heading to 2026, the global economy should remain resilient, with growth broadly similar to 2025, yet increasingly shaped by complex dynamics such as shifting trade alignments, demographic aging, evolving labor dynamics, and an accelerating Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment cycle. These forces create both stabilizers and vulnerabilities.
The euro area is expected to enter a cyclical recovery from 2026 onward, supported by monetary easing, a more expansionary fiscal stance, particularly in defense and infrastructure, and resilient private sector fundamentals. In the U.S., economy is expected to slow modestly into 2026, with the broader outlook still uncertain, balancing downside risks from tariffs and policy uncertainty on one hand and potential upside from AI-driven productivity gains and pro-business reforms on the other. Emerging markets show uneven but firmer momentum: domestic demand and targeted policies underpin parts of Asia and India, while China contends with demographic drag, underconsumption, and deflationary pressure that likely cap growth near 4%. In Latin America, U.S. trade policy has had a significant impact on the region, yet, easing inflation and lower interest rates are expected to provide support for economic activity while a solid external position provides a buffer against potentially external shocks.
Technology investment, particularly in AI, will continue to act as a powerful engine of productivity, competitiveness, and corporate earnings. Yet, the year ahead also calls for prudence. As geopolitical realignments deepen, the global economy is becoming more sensitive to policy decisions, regional tensions and shifts in investor sentiment. Nations and corporates will have to adapt to structural transitions, such as globalization gradually reorganizing into more regionalized blocs, supply chains being redesigned with security in mind, demographic pressures, climate-related investments and emerging technologies scaling at an unprecedented pace, all of that in an environment where uncertainty around trade policy remains a feature heading into 2026, with tariff movements poised to influence inflation trends, investment behavior, and corporate margins.
Against this backdrop, the challenge - and opportunity – from nations to corporates, will be to navigate a landscape shaped simultaneously by resilience, transition, and the potential for disruption. This involves adopting flexible and adaptable planning, supported by scenarios that help anticipate geopolitical and commercial risks and regulatory changes. Facing these structural challenges and accelerating long-term economic growth in this new global order requires higher investment, which depends on greater access to financing. In that sense, it is crucial to integrate European capital markets, reduce fragmentation, and create a more competitive environment within a smart regulation and taxation, to effectively channel citizens’ savings into productive uses such as innovation, infrastructure, and companies’ growth.